Matadin
Meena, a 72-year-old farmer from Dhis village in Rajasthan's Alwar district,
groaned as he stared up at the sky on a scorching May afternoon. He wiped a
bead of sweat from his furrowed forehead and continued, "Everything relies
on the weather and the harvest." "I'd like to know when and how much
it will rain in my village." I'll add another room to my house if we get a
strong rain and I can sell my harvest for a decent price."
Monsoon
is as much prose as poetry in India. Economists and stock markets, as well as
artists, writers, and singers, are enthralled. The summer monsoon, which
normally begins in June and lasts till September, provides life and livelihood
for millions of Indian farmers, including Meena. During this time, India
receives more than 75% of its yearly rainfall. Monsoon rains are crucial for
India's agriculture, which is the country's main employer.
In
the last five decades, farmer Meena has watched the monsoon both boost and
destroy dreams. He stated it rained heavily near the end of the monsoon last
year, just as the pearl millet crop was being harvested. "The entire crop
was ruined."
The
India Meteorological Department's (IMD) first rainfall projection for the
southwest monsoon season has heightened hopes for this year. The "Southwest
monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is
most likely to be normal (96 to 104 percent of Long Period Average (LPA)"
between 1971 and 2020, according to a government body that analyzes
meteorological patterns across India. The amount is most likely 99 percent of
the LPA.
The
IMD's new normal LPA of 87cm of rainfall drew a lot of media attention in India
this year. It is a millimetre shorter than the LPA from 1961 to 2010. That may
not seem like much, but it indicates a downward trend. From 1951 to 2000, the
LPA was 89cm.
"The
updated definition of what constitutes average rainfall in the country is not
unusual. It's a standard procedure. We do it every ten years. This is standard
worldwide practice," IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told AlJazeera.
The
main concern in the countryside, rather than the LPA or the "new
normal," is monsoon variability and how it will play out in different
sections of the nation.
"Focusing
on all-India rainfall can be a distraction because this country is huge, and
there are huge variations in rainfall between different parts of the country
during the monsoon," said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and a lead author in the most recent
series of IPCC reports.
"If
you look at rainfall distribution in different sections of the country after
1950, you'll notice a distinct reduction." In regions of north and central
India, the reduction is significant.
The
drop in total rainfall comes even as extreme rainfall events are increasing,
including a three-fold rise in extreme rainfall events since 1950, as well as
more short bursts of intense rainfall combined with longer stretches of dry
days during the monsoon season, he added.
This
has repercussions, beginning with water management issues. "We need
moderate rainfall over a longer time," Koll stated. Instead, strong
rainstorms cause flooding and give little time for water to percolate
underground. As the water table drops, more bore wells are drilled to extract
whatever water remains, posing a threat to water and food security.
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